Wednesday, June 30, 2010

NOT AN INSULT

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Speaking as an Australian, I feel absolutely no insult over the rejection of John Howard as Deputy President of the ICC. None whatsoever. And many of my cricket-loving compatriots feel the same way.

I agree with Peter Roebuck's decription of John Howard as 'an outsider uninvolved in cricket'.

Why should Howard have been nominated? Certainly not on the basis of his provocative comments about Muttiah Muralitharan's bowling action. It was none of his business.

Let's keep conservative politicians in their place - as spectators - and leave sport to talented sports men and women.

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Copyright cvwilliams.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

FOR CRICKET STATS FREAKS

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OVER TO YOU AGAIN THIS WEEK, JEREMY GILLING, STATISTICIAN EXTRAORDINAIRE. Your observations of the game are mircoscopic, intense and possibly prophetic when you ask...

'Has chasing down a big fourth-innings target become easier in recent years? If so, does that mean the team batting third needs to be more cautious in setting a fourth-innings target?

Analysis of fourth-innings results over the years suggests that the answer to both questions is yes. The past decade has seen seven fourth-innings scores of 400+ (two of them to win, and in the process eclipse all past winning fourth-innings totals) and 14 of 380+. The entire 134 years of Test cricket have featured just 18 fourth-innings scores of 400+ and 25 of 380+. (Yes, that’s right: every fourth-innings score between 380 and 399 has occurred since 2000.)

It is also clear that the “par” fourth innings target – the score where the odds of getting the runs are about 50:50 – has risen sharply in the past decade.
To demonstrate this, I’ve divided the Test era into eight periods: the nineteenth century; the two pre-war eras of the twentieth century; the post-WW2 years to 1970; and each of the subsequent four decades. These periods seem to strike a reasonable balance between durations and numbers of Tests played, and also form a fairly natural epochal divide.

Of the 1959 Tests played to date (to the end of the England-Bangladesh series), 936 have produced a fourth-innings result (including the two ties, but excluding draws).
I’ve calculated the “par” fourth-innings score for each of these eight periods as the closest fit to the score for which the probability of the batting team reaching a target above that score equals that of the fielding team defending a target below that score. For example, for the 38 eligible Tests played in the nineteenth century, the fourth innings target was 169 or more for 14, and these targets were achieved four times, or 29 per cent of the time. On the other hand, the fourth innings target was 151 or less for 24 Tests, and these targets were successfully defended seven times, also 29 per cent of the time. The par score is the average of 151 and 169, or 160.

BATTING EASIER?

As batting became easier after 1900, and easier again between the wars, so the par score increased – to 216 in the pre-WW1 years and 258 in the interwar period. It then fell back to 235 for the 25 years to 1970, and 227 for the following decade, before jumping again, to 261, in the 1980s.

Then in the 1990s the par score collapsed to a level not witnessed since before WW1. But even more dramatic was the rise in the most recent decade – a 64-run jump to 283. Suddenly, in defiance of decades of accepted wisdom, batting in the fourth innings seems to have become not much more difficult than in the first three innings.

Now it could fairly be said that batting generally seems to be easier these days, and the table bears this out to some extent. Runs per wicket in all innings of all Tests, at 34.62, is at an historic high – more than 10 per cent up on the previous decade. (No doubt high-tech bats, smaller playing areas, and perhaps also greater physical fitness – enabling batsmen to concentrate better for longer – have a lot to do with it.) But even allowing for this – as I’ve done by dividing the par score by the runs per wicket figure – it’s clear that the chasing team has an easier task than at any time since the early twentieth century.

My Table reveals other interesting trends. The first two periods to the outbreak of WW1 saw plenty of upsets – teams were able to chase down an above-par target, or defend a below-par target, more than a quarter of the time. By contrast, in the interwar period, most matches followed the script – just 7 per cent of above-par targets were chased down, and only 10 per cent of below-par targets defended.
From then on the pattern has stabilised, with consistently between one in seven and one in nine Tests not conforming to expectations.

WEIGH IT UP

Is all this a good or bad thing? On balance, I think the game is the poorer now that the final-day drama of batsmen fighting for survival against spinners in their element is being steadily lost. Misbehaving fifth-day pitches are a rich part of cricket lore. Do we really want Test matches to follow the same tempo throughout the five days?'

For a copy of Jeremy's detailed Table of the basis for his conclusions above, email cvwananda.com.au NOW!

Jeremy reckons his detailed analysis has only been possible with Ric Finlay’s dazzling, and very affordable, Tastats Test cricket software, available through www.tastats.com.au.

And that's as close to an advertisement as this column is ever going to go.

Copyright Jeremy Gilling.

See you soon - hopefully with some fresh Sachin material!

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Tuesday, June 8, 2010

BRETT LEE'S FRIENDLY TAKE ON SACHIN TENDULKAR: "a big kid"

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Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Putting a premium on taking wickets

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According to cricinfo this shot is one of an invisible (yet handsome, you'll have to take my word for it) Ewen Chatfield stretchered off after nearly being killed on the cricket field, in a Test match against England in 1975. Pre-helmet days, Chatfield reportedly swallowed his tongue after being hit unconscious on the temple by a bouncer from English fast bowler Peter Lever. Chatfield, a 'New Zlnd' medium-pace bowler himself, was revived by heart massage.

As a digression once again distracts me from the main focus of this blog - which of course will always remain Sachin Tendulkar - I'm inviting contributions from the cognoscenti on a number of aspects of contemporary cricket which often incite heated debate. So, to begin this week, let's hear it from amateur cricket statistician and 'the Ewen Chatfield of Sunday social cricket', Jeremy Gilling, writing as himself:

Putting a premium on taking wickets
by Jeremy Gilling

Christine has kindly offered me space for an irregular column in which I air a few suggestions for revamping cricket in both its long and short versions. I begin with the one-day (50-over) format.

It is clear that the 50-over game in its present configuration is slowly dying. Crowds for this once hugely popular form of entertainment are down almost everywhere, calamitously so in its domestic manifestation. Most games follow a script that has become tediously familiar. The rules are made ever more artificial and byzantine in an effort to reinvigorate the game, with further tinkering in prospect.

The heart of the problem, in my view, is that, unlike in the traditional unrestricted overs version of the game, wickets don’t count for nearly as much as runs. Worse, the value of a wicket declines sharply as the innings progresses, and is often next to worthless in the last handful of overs. Conversely, batting becomes ever more recklessly extravagant as the overs tick down. The end of innings slog must break the purist’s heart.

A resultant problem is that there’s little room for tactical subtlety. Field settings are dictated by the rules and the stage of the innings. You can even reliably predict who will be asked to bowl when, and what line and length they’ll bowl. Bowlers try to bowl as wide of the off stump as they can get away with without being called. Even deliberate full tosses have their place. It would be sad if it wasn’t so dreary.

My proposal is simplicity itself. Give the batting side 10 bonus runs for each wicket intact at the end of their innings. At the same time, do away with the power play – and perhaps (after the innovation’s been trialled for a while), abolish all limited-overs field restrictions (in other words, scrap the fielding circle – the only restrictions in place would be those that apply in first-class cricket). You could probably even scrap the one-day wide rule.

This reform – which would only apply in games that run their full length (the Duckworth-Lewis formula already allows for wickets lost) – would I think transform the game by bringing wicket-taking back to the fore throughout the innings.

Now suddenly batsmen have to place a value on their wicket at every stage of the game (just like in Test cricket), and will bat accordingly. The ugly crossbat slog – and that dreadful step to leg to hit over the top of covers – will become a thing of the past. Strokeplayers will replace bashers. Bowlers will mix attack and containment just as in a Test (and attacking bowlers will supersede medium-pace trundlers). Captains will balance attack and defence in setting fields.

It would also solve the problem of the tedious middle stage from around over 15 to over 35, which even the administrators have finally recognised is killing the game, where there’s an implicit truce between the batsmen and bowlers: we’ll give you 4 to 5 runs an over so long as you just bunt the ball down to long on and long off for singles.

But the best thing about this proposal is that it would introduce complexity and intrigue into the limited overs game, and require everyone – batsmen, bowlers, captains (and of course spectators/viewers and commentators) – to have their wits about them at every stage of the innings. Suppose, for example, that side A scores 5-250 in their 50 overs (= 300 with the bonus). After 40 overs, side B is 3-200. Under the present rules, that would be a cakewalk for side B – just plod along for 5 overs without losing more than a couple of wickets, then throw the bat. But now, under this proposed format, both sides have to think strategically. Side B will have to decide whether to aim for 31 runs in 10 overs if they’re good enough to keep all wickets intact (remember that side A will be attacking, not just containing), or 41 runs losing just 1 wicket, or 51 losing 2 wickets ... And side A will be making exactly the same calculations. Not only that, but every time a wicket is lost, they’ve got to reappraise their tactics.

Another example: side A scores 5-250 as before, and side B is 5-248 after 49 overs. Game over under the present rules, but under my suggestion, side A still has a real chance – if they can take a wicket before side B scores 3 runs, everything changes. (And just to add a soupçon of spice, you could say that the game stays alive even if side B scores 3 runs off the first ball – that they still have to play out the last five balls without losing a wicket.)

Let’s try it out in the Australian interstate competition next season – we’ve nothing to lose, after all; the game as it stands is dead in the water. I can see only one problem with this suggestion. Channel 9 and Fox Sports would have to hire some intelligent, numerate people as commentators, and I’ve no idea where they’d find them.

Jeremy's next column will be about restructuring the Test championship. Comments welcome from those stirred up by Jeremy's proposal. Please feel free to let fly - & if you have difficulty logging comments on here, email me at cvwananda@gmail.com

In the meantime, next week we'll have a photo and commentary offering on the subject of the great Sachin Tendulkar from Marcus Couto (CCI) et al.

Copyright for main article Jeremy Gilling.
Ewen Chatfield pic 1st Test, Auckland, February 24, 1975 was reproduced on cricinfo www.cricinfo.com/ci/content/image/343409.html with permission from The Cricketer International.
Pic of Jeremy Gilling, not as brave as Chatfield but obviously a little worse for wear while not prepared to don his whites on a cycle trip in Vietnam about 30 years after Chatfield's close shave with death. No connection exists between the two photgraphs as far as I can see, except that Jeremy, as a young lad, must have admired Chatfield to describe himself comparatively.

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Thursday, May 20, 2010

Cricket writer Sumit Mukherjee again - best buddies?


Sumit, who so kindly sent me word about the babe-in-blue pics, has a snapshot of his own he's allowing me to share with you all.
So, what did you say that set Sachin grinning, I asked him?
'Can I enrol for long-distance learning?'

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Friday, May 7, 2010

Sachin's Life Beyond Cricket


Can it be true? That Sachin has a life outside of cricket? Now we have evidence of at least some passing interests & adventures - as well as a devout attention to family & friends ...
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/babes_in_blue/ reveals several pleasing pastimes. Sent to us compliments of Sumit Mukherjee.

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...& spirituality, sacred blossoms and all.




It has crossed my mind though that the photo of the man in the blue Nike shirt with headphones, 5th pic from the top, is not actually Sachin. What do you think?
I guess you've also well & truly caught up with the news that Sachin has taken to twittering. You can join the thousands who are tuning in directly: a/c@sachin_rt
75,000 followers on the first day, I'm told! Many more are following now ...

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Monday, April 26, 2010

CONGRATULATIONS TO CHENNAI IN IPL FINAL VICTORY



“Sachin’s captaincy and leadership has been remarkable. … Overall, it has been a wonderful team effort.”

Mumbai Indians’ coach Robin Singh looks on the positive - quoted on the MI website following Chennai Super Kings' win over MI by 22 runs in the IPL final.

Pic from Mumbai Indians' website.

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